Claim 060166b3Checked 21 Jul 2026
Partly True/FalseOn the truth scale
“The OECD forecasts that UK growth is up.”
Reasoning & Evidence21 Jul 2026
The claim "The OECD forecasts that UK growth is up" is ambiguous, but the best available evidence paints a mixed picture that does not straightforwardly support the assertion.
On 3 June 2026 — the same day as the speech — the OECD published its Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1. It forecast UK GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. This 2026 figure was indeed an *upgrade* from the OECD's March 2026 interim forecast of 0.7%, partly reflecting stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth (0.6%). In that narrow sense, the 2026 forecast was revised "up" relative to the immediately preceding OECD projection.
However, several material qualifications undermine the impression the claim gives:
1. **The OECD's own language describes growth as weakening, not rising.** The report's headline wording for the UK is: "Growth will weaken to 0.9% in 2026" and "Growth will moderate temporarily." Growth is forecast to slow from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026 — a deceleration, not an increase.
2. **The forecast was a downgrade from the OECD's December 2025 outlook**, which had projected 1.2% growth for 2026. So relative to the last full Economic Outlook, the 2026 growth forecast was cut, not raised.
3. **The 2027 forecast was cut**, from 1.3% (March and December) to 1.1% (June), meaning the longer-term outlook weakened.
4. The OECD attributed the near-term weakness to the Middle East conflict, renewed inflationary pressures, squeezed real incomes, and fiscal consolidation — not to a broadening improvement.
So while it is technically true that the June 2026 forecast for 2026 growth was revised upward from the March 2026 interim figure (0.7% → 0.9%), the OECD's overall message was one of weakening and moderating growth, with the forecast still below where it stood in December 2025. The unqualified claim that "UK growth is up" gives a misleading impression of what the OECD actually projected.
Sources:
- OECD, "United Kingdom: OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1" (3 June 2026), https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2026-issue-1_2d1956f0-en/full-report/united-kingdom_ee1bed4d.html
- OECD, "Projections: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2026" (26 March 2026), https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2026_d4623013-en/full-report/component-3.html
- OECD, "United Kingdom: OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2" (2 December 2025), https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-2_413f7d0a/full-report/united-kingdom_9fc28efb.html
- Reuters / LSE, "OECD scales back forecast of immediate Iran war impact on UK" (3 June 2026), https://www.lse.co.uk/news/oecd-scales-back-forecast-of-immediate-iran-war-impact-on-uk-nq2688qcwctxj94.html
- House of Commons Library, "GDP international comparisons: Economic indicators" (3 June 2026), https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/
From speech
I am proud of what we are delivering on this side of the House. The fastest growing economy in the G7—they said it could not be done. Despite the war in the middle east, the OECD forecasts that UK growth is up and inflation is down. Net migration, which reached nearly a million under the Conservatives—the Leader of the Opposition was the cheerleader—is down by a staggering 82%. The asylum backlog is down by 46%. We are delivering the fastest reduction in waiting times in the history of the NHS. That is on top of free school meals, free breakfast clubs and free childcare—and, of course, we are lifting half a million children out of poverty. I am very proud of the work of this Labour Government.
Sources opened
| [1] | oecd.org |
| [2] | oecd.org |
| [3] | oecd.org |
| [4] | oecd.org |
| [5] | commonslibrary.parliament.uk |
| [6] | lse.co.uk |
| [7] | lse.co.uk |
| [8] | oecd.org |
| [9] | oecd.org |
| [10] | oecd.org |
| [11] | reuters.com |
| [12] | oecd.org |
| [13] | bbc.co.uk |
| [14] | independent.co.uk |
| [15] | uk.finance.yahoo.com |
| [16] | oecd.org |