Claim 31a4fd81Checked 21 Jul 2026
TrueOn the truth scale
“Black men have double the risk of being diagnosed with and dying from prostate cancer.”
—Mr Calvin BaileyLabourLab / Leyton and Wanstead·Engagements·03 Jun 2026Factual · quantitative empirical
Reasoning & Evidence21 Jul 2026
The claim that Black men have double the risk of being diagnosed with and dying from prostate cancer is strongly supported by multiple authoritative sources.
A peer-reviewed study published in BMC Medicine (2015), using Public Health England data from 2008–2010, found that the lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer was approximately 1 in 4 (29.3%) for Black men compared to 1 in 8 (13.3%) for White men, and the lifetime risk of dying from prostate cancer was approximately 1 in 12 (8.7%) for Black men compared to 1 in 24 (4.2%) for White men. The study explicitly concluded: "Black men are at double the lifetime risk of both being diagnosed with and dying from prostate cancer, compared to White men in England."
Prostate Cancer UK, the leading charity in this domain, states on its website: "1 in 4 Black men will get prostate cancer. That's double the risk of other men."
More recent analysis by Prostate Cancer UK (using data from March 2021 to January 2023) confirms that Black men continue to have the highest prostate cancer mortality rates, with Black Caribbean men 1.73 times more likely to die than white British men and Black African men 1.28 times more likely — noting "up to twice the lifetime risk of dying from the disease compared with white men."
The core assertion — that Black men face approximately double the risk of both diagnosis and death from prostate cancer — is directly supported by peer-reviewed research and by the UK's principal prostate cancer charity. The "double" framing is a fair summary of the best available evidence, though the precise ratio varies by subgroup (Black African vs Black Caribbean) and by the specific time period and methodology used.
Sources:
- BMC Medicine / Springer Nature: "Lifetime risk of being diagnosed with, or dying from, prostate cancer by major ethnic group in England 2008–2010" — https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-015-0405-5
- Prostate Cancer UK: "Black men and prostate cancer" — https://prostatecanceruk.org/prostate-information-and-support/risk-and-symptoms/black-men-and-prostate-cancer
- Prostate Cancer UK: "Inequalities in prostate cancer mortality in England" — https://prostatecanceruk.org/for-health-professionals/data-and-evidence/inequalities-in-prostate-cancer-mortality-in-england
- GOV.UK: "Major expansion of research and treatment for prostate cancer" — https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-expansion-of-research-and-treatment-for-prostate-cancer
From speech
Yesterday, the Health Secretary confirmed that all eligible black men would be invited to the Transform trial. As chair of the all-party parliamentary group on prostate cancer, I welcome this vital step towards screening for this terrible disease, for which black men have a doubled risk for both diagnosis and death. This is something that Reform has responded to with nothing but divisive weasel words and rage-baiting. Does the Prime Minister agree that our NHS was founded by Labour to be there for everyone equally, and that when there is a proven higher risk, targeting support is equality?
Sources opened
| [1] | doi.org |
| [2] | prostatecanceruk.org |
| [3] | link.springer.com |
| [4] | link.springer.com |
| [5] | prostatecanceruk.org |
| [6] | gov.uk |
| [7] | prostatecanceruk.org |
| [8] | imperial.nhs.uk |
| [9] | isrctn.com |
| [10] | gov.uk |