“The welfare bill rose by £88 billion during the Opposition's period in government.”

The claim asserts that the welfare bill rose by £88 billion during the Conservatives' 2010–2024 period in government. Based on official DWP and OBR data, welfare/social security spending did rise substantially over this period, but the specific £88 billion figure does not cleanly match the most straightforward comparisons available. Key data points from official sources: - In 2010-11, total UK social security benefits expenditure was approximately £172.9 billion, with tax credits adding approximately £23.4 billion, giving a combined total of roughly £196 billion (HM Treasury, Public Expenditure 2010-11). - By 2024-25, total UK welfare spending was £314.9 billion (DWP/Lords Library, citing DWP benefit expenditure and caseload tables). - This implies a cash-terms increase of roughly £119 billion from 2010-11 to 2024-25 — substantially more than £88 billion. - The OBR's 2017 guide recorded social security and tax credits spending at £216 billion in 2015-16, confirming a rising trajectory. - A narrower "welfare" definition (central government welfare from ukpublicspending.co.uk) showed an increase from £110.7 billion in 2010 to £170.1 billion in 2024 — about £59 billion, which is less than £88 billion. The £88 billion figure could plausibly represent a real-terms increase or a comparison using a particular subset of benefits and a specific start/end year, but no official source directly corroborates this exact number. The Resolution Foundation noted that real-terms welfare spending in 2019-20 was £280 billion and projected 2025-26 at £324 billion (a £44 billion real-terms gap over six years), which suggests a real-terms increase over the full 2010–2024 period could be in the range of £80–100 billion depending on exact measures — broadly consistent with £88 billion but not confirmed by the sources available. The core directional claim is accurate: welfare spending did rise significantly during the Conservatives' time in office. However, the precise £88 billion figure does not match the most direct cash-terms comparison from DWP data (which gives a larger increase of approximately £119 billion), and no official source confirming the exact £88 billion figure or the specific methodology behind it was found. Sources: HM Treasury, Public Expenditure 2010-11 (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7cb9aaed915d63cc65c795/peowp201011.pdf); DWP, Benefit expenditure and caseload tables guidance (gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-guidance-and-methodology/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-information-and-guidance); Lords Library, Welfare reforms and youth unemployment (lordslibrary.parliament.uk/welfare-reforms-and-youth-unemployment/); OBR, An OBR guide to welfare spending (obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/An-OBR-guide-to-welfare-spending-Bud-17.pdf); Resolution Foundation, Is welfare spending 'out of control'? (resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-welfare-spending-out-of-control/); ukpublicspending.co.uk, Welfare Spending Chart for United Kingdom (ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_welfare_chart_40.html)