The claim is that "benefits alone have risen by £20 billion since the Prime Minister came to office." Keir Starmer became Prime Minister on 5 July 2024, and the speech was delivered on 3 June 2026 — a period of roughly 23 months. The £20 billion figure is a real one, but the official sources attribute it to a different timeframe. The government's own "Pathways to Work" Green Paper states explicitly: "Total spending on incapacity and disability benefits for working-age adults has soared by £20 billion since the pandemic, an increase of almost two-thirds." This figure refers to the increase from roughly 2019/20 to 2024/25 — a period spanning approximately five years, most of which occurred under the previous Conservative government (including Badenoch's own party). The pandemic began in early 2020, well before Labour took office in July 2024. Corroborating this, the Institute for Fiscal Studies reported that spending on health-related benefits for working-age adults and children grew from £38bn in 2019-20 to £57bn in 2024-25 — an increase of approximately £19 billion, again attributed to the period since the pandemic. The Office for Budget Responsibility's data shows that health and disability benefit spending for working-age adults was around £56.4 billion in 2024/25. Even using forecasts, the increase from 2024/25 onward would be on the order of several billion pounds per year — not £20 billion in under two years. The OBR forecasts spending on health and disability benefits for working-age adults to rise from £56.4 billion in 2024/25 to £75.7 billion in 2029/30 — a £19.3 billion increase spread over five years, not concentrated in the period since July 2024. The core problem is one of attribution: the £20 billion figure is a genuine statistic, but it describes spending growth since the pandemic (2020), not since Starmer entered office (July 2024). The vast majority of that increase occurred while the Conservatives were in government. Badenoch has taken a figure associated with the post-pandemic period — when her own party was in power — and attributed it entirely to the period since Labour took office, which is contradicted by the best available evidence. Sources: - GOV.UK, "Pathways to Work: Reforming Benefits and Support to Get Britain Working" Green Paper — https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/pathways-to-work-reforming-benefits-and-support-to-get-britain-working-green-paper/pathways-to-work-reforming-benefits-and-support-to-get-britain-working-green-paper - Full Fact, "How much is the 'welfare bill' set to increase by?" — https://fullfact.org/economy/benefit-welfare-spending/ - Office for Budget Responsibility, "Further information on health and disability benefit spending at Spring Budget 2024" — https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Health-and-disability-benefits-supplementary-release.pdf - The Independent / iNews, reporting IFS figures on health-related benefit spending growth from £38bn (2019-20) to £57bn (2024-25) — https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/benefits-cuts-we-rebel-labours-3bn-welfare-problem-3917483