Claim 46cec96bChecked 22 Jul 2026
Weak EvidenceOn the evidence scale
The Conservatives are paying for the Cheap Power Plan by getting Britain drilling.
@KemiBadenoch·Tweet·21 Jul 2026Causal
Reasoning & Evidence22 Jul 2026
The claim that "getting Britain drilling" (increasing North Sea oil and gas production) would "pay for" the Conservatives' Cheap Power Plan (aiming to cut household energy bills by ~£200/year) has a weak causal link based on the evidence. **Key findings:** 1. **The plan's direct bill reductions come from scrapping taxes and levies, not from drilling.** The Conservatives' own breakdown attributes the ~£200 in savings to three measures: £94 from removing VAT on energy bills, £75 from scrapping the carbon tax, and ~£22 from ending legacy renewable subsidies (New Civil Engineer). None of these savings are directly attributable to drilling revenue. 2. **The primary funding mechanism is scrapping Net Zero schemes.** The BBC reports the party said its proposals would be funded by scrapping renewable energy schemes and green levies. Conservative MP Andrew Bowie wrote in LBC: "Our Cheap Power Plan will be funded by scrapping various taxpayer-funded Net Zero schemes, including Ed Miliband's GB Energy, heat pump subsidies, and abolishing the Renewable Obligation subsidies." 3. **North Sea drilling is presented as a supplementary revenue stream, not the primary funding mechanism.** Badenoch said the plan would work "by using the revenues from the North Sea to reduce the wider tax burden." The Conservatives estimate ~£2.5 billion/year in additional North Sea tax receipts. However, the BBC frames this separately, suggesting it is additional to the core funding, not the core funding itself. 4. **Expert analysis strongly contests whether drilling would generate meaningful revenue or reduce bills.** The Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment (March 2026) found that fully exploiting remaining North Sea reserves would save households only £16–£82/year, and only if all fiscal revenues were directly redistributed. Without redistribution, there would be "no discernible benefit" because oil and gas prices are set on international markets. The report's co-author called the "drill baby drill" approach "sheer fantasy" for reducing bills. Labour's Exchequer Secretary Dan Tomlinson and the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit echoed this skepticism. 5. **The Conservatives' own policy also repeals the Energy Profits Levy (windfall tax).** Repealing this tax would reduce the fiscal take from North Sea operations — the Oxford analysis found that without the windfall tax, savings drop to just ~£16/household/year, creating tension with the claim that drilling would fund the plan. **Assessment:** The causal link between "getting Britain drilling" and "paying for the Cheap Power Plan" is weak. The Conservatives present drilling revenue as part of their funding narrative, but the primary and direct funding mechanism is scrapping Net Zero schemes. The drilling component is speculative (dependent on production ramping up, international prices, and whether revenues are redistributed), contested by independent expert analysis, and potentially undermined by the Conservatives' own proposal to repeal the windfall tax. The claim overstates the role of drilling in funding the plan. Sources: BBC News, "Remove VAT from energy bills for three years, Tories urge" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gx01d0re1o); New Civil Engineer, "Conservatives launch campaign to expand North Sea production" (https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/conservatives-launch-campaign-to-expand-north-sea-production-but-face-backlash-31-03-2026/); Conservative Party, "Our Plan to get Britain back on Track" (https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan-for-britain); LBC, "Net zero dogma won't keep the lights on" — Andrew Bowie MP (https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/get-britain-drilling-now-opinion-5HjdX68_2/); Oxford Smith School, "Impact of Oil and Gas Exploitation in the North Sea on UK Household Energy Bills" (https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2026-03/North_Sea_Rapid_Analysis_March2026_OxfordSmithSchool.pdf); Oxford Smith School news release, "'Drill baby drill' approach to North Sea would cost households more" (https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/news/drill-baby-drill-approach-north-sea-would-cost-households-more-fully-renewable-uk-finds-oxford); Graham Stuart MP, "Cheap Power Plan" (https://www.grahamstuart.com/cheappowerplan)
From tweet
Conservatives have set out our fully funded Cheap Power Plan that will cut family energy bills by £200, including by cutting their VAT. We are paying for that by getting Britain drilling and scrapping Net Zero policies. John Healey should take a look at it and steal our ideas.
Sources opened
[1]bbc.co.uk
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gx01d0re1o
[2]conservatives.com
https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan-for-britain
[3]grahamstuart.com
https://www.grahamstuart.com/cheappowerplan
[4]newcivilengineer.com
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/conservatives-launch-campaign-to-expand-north-sea-production-but-face-backlash-31-03-2026/
[5]bbc.com
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gx01d0re1o
[6]mimsdavies.org.uk
https://www.mimsdavies.org.uk/news/mims-davies-mp-statement-conservative-cheap-power-plan-and-energy-resilience-strategy
[7]lbc.co.uk
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/get-britain-drilling-now-opinion-5HjdX68_2/
[8]smithschool.ox.ac.uk
https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2026-03/North_Sea_Rapid_Analysis_March2026_OxfordSmithSchool.pdf
[9]smithschool.ox.ac.uk
https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/news/drill-baby-drill-approach-north-sea-would-cost-households-more-fully-renewable-uk-finds-oxford
[10]conservatives.com
https://www.conservatives.com/news/energy-is-prosperity
[11]facebook.com
https://www.facebook.com/conservatives/posts/keir-starmer-doesnt-have-to-hike-taxes-on-fuelour-cheap-power-plan-would-take-20/1516825583134048/
[12]bylinetimes.com
https://bylinetimes.com/2026/06/08/big-oil-employees-wrote-paper-behind-kemi-badenochs-north-sea-fantasy/
[13]gbnews.com
https://www.gbnews.com/money/north-sea-oil-uk-energy-bills-oxford-experts
[14]yorkshirepost.co.uk
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/reform-uk-to-scrap-humber-carbon-capture-project-funding-5627128
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