Claim 5cc533b3Checked 21 Jul 2026
TrueOn the truth scale
“The number of people on welfare increased hugely during the Conservatives’ time in office.”
Interpreted asidiom
“The number of people on welfare increased greatly while the Conservatives were in office.”
Reasoning & Evidence21 Jul 2026
The claim that "the number of people on welfare increased greatly while the Conservatives were in office" (2010–2024) is well-supported by official statistics from DWP, the OBR, and the NAO.
**Key evidence:**
1. **Working-age benefit claimants**: DWP statistics show there were 5.7 million working-age benefit claimants in May 2010 (when the Conservatives took office). By August 2024, this had risen to 9.1 million — an increase of approximately 3.4 million, or roughly 60%.
2. **Total DWP benefit claimants**: DWP Benefit Combinations statistics show total claimants in Great Britain were relatively stable between 20–21 million from February 2013 to February 2020, then rose due to the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at 23.0 million in February 2021, and continuing to 23.7 million by August 2024 — the highest point in the time series.
3. **Incapacity benefits**: The OBR's October 2024 Welfare Trends Report confirms the incapacity benefits caseload increased by 340,000 (13.2%) between 2008-09 and 2023-24, with the sharpest rise since 2019-20 (a 670,000 increase). The proportion of the working-age population receiving an incapacity benefit reached a post-financial-crisis high of 7.0% in 2023-24.
4. **Universal Credit**: UC grew from near-zero (introduced 2013) to 7.2 million claimants by October 2024. While some growth reflects migration from legacy benefits, the overall working-age claimant population still grew substantially.
5. **Welfare spending**: DWP total expenditure was £275.8 billion in 2023-24 and £298.0 billion in 2024-25, with significant real-terms growth over the Conservative years, particularly post-2019.
Some of the increase was driven by factors beyond government policy (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic, demographic ageing, rising state pension age), but the factual core of the claim — that numbers on welfare rose substantially during 2010–2024 — is accurate.
Sources:
- DWP Stats Summary November 2010: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7cc479e5274a38e57569e9/stats_summary_nov2010.pdf
- DWP Benefit Combinations Official Statistics to August 2024: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-february-2025/benefit-combinations-official-statistics-to-august-2024
- OBR Welfare Trends Report October 2024: https://obr.uk/wtr/welfare-trends-report-october-2024/
- DWP Benefits Statistics August 2024: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2024/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2024
- Universal Credit Statistics to October 2024: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-10-october-2024/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-10-october-2024
- NAO DWP Overview 2024-25: https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Department-for-Work-and-Pensions-Overview-2024-25.pdf
From speech
May I first thank the Leader of the Opposition for her approach and tone in relation to the tragic Henry Nowak case? On welfare, as she knows, we inherited from the Conservative party a broken system, which we are now improving: delivering a youth guarantee; rolling out 300,000 work experience placements; and commissioning Alan Milburn’s review into youth unemployment. They are the steps we are taking. As she will know, the number on welfare went up hugely on the Conservatives’ watch, as did the cost under the shadow Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Central Devon (Sir Mel Stride).
Sources opened