Claim 8c1f9e19Checked 21 Jul 2026
Partly True/FalseOn the truth scale
“Overseas manufacturers constitute the majority of newly registered buses on Scotland’s roads.”
Reasoning & Evidence21 Jul 2026
The claim that "overseas manufacturers constitute the majority of newly registered buses on Scotland's roads" is **partly supported but not clearly confirmed** by the available evidence, and the picture is more nuanced than the claim suggests.
Key findings:
1. **UK-wide market share (all buses, April 2025):** A Scottish Government FOI release (April 2025) states that UK manufacturers accounted for just 56% of the UK bus market, down from 83% a year earlier — meaning overseas manufacturers held approximately **44%**, i.e., a *minority*, not a majority.
2. **Zero-emission buses specifically (March 2026 statement):** Alexander Dennis/NFI Group stated that "51% of all zero-emission buses purchased in the UK are sourced from overseas manufacturers — an increase of 25 percentage points from 2024." This confirms a majority — but only for **zero-emission buses**, and only for the **UK as a whole**, not Scotland specifically.
3. **Scotland-specific data by manufacturer origin:** The SMMT registration data gives national totals and marque-level UK-wide market shares, but does not provide a Scotland-specific breakdown by whether the manufacturer is domestic or overseas. No source found directly states that overseas manufacturers constitute a majority of *all newly registered buses* (not just zero-emission) on Scotland's roads specifically.
4. **ScotZEB-funded orders:** For Scottish Government-funded zero-emission bus schemes (ScotZEB), more than two-thirds of orders went overseas (340 of 523 vehicles, with 287 from China's Yutong). This supports the concern about overseas dominance in *funded* orders, but does not equate to a majority of all new registrations on Scotland's roads.
The claim is accurate in spirit regarding the growing dominance of overseas manufacturers, particularly in zero-emission buses and ScotZEB-funded orders. However, the specific assertion that overseas manufacturers constitute the majority of *newly registered buses on Scotland's roads* is not clearly supported by the best available evidence: the April 2025 data shows overseas at 44% of the wider UK market (a minority), and the 51% figure applies only to zero-emission buses UK-wide, not all new bus registrations in Scotland. The claim overgeneralises from zero-emission/funded orders to all new registrations and from UK-wide to Scotland-specific.
Sources:
- Scottish Government FOI release (EIR 202500471639), April 2025 — https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/foi-eir-release/2025/09/foi-202500471639/documents/eir-202500471639---information-released---annex/eir-202500471639---information-released---annex/govscot%3Adocument/EIR%2B202500471639%2B-%2BInformation%2BReleased%2B-%2BAnnex.pdf
- NFI/Alexander Dennis press release, 31 March 2026 — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/31/3265320/0/en/NFI-s-Alexander-Dennis-proposes-new-Scottish-manufacturing-strategy-in-response-to-changing-market-demand.html
- SMMT Bus and Coach Registrations Data — https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/bus-and-coach-registrations/
- SMMT, "Strongest new bus and coach market since 2008 as zero emission uptake surges" — https://www.smmt.co.uk/strongest-new-bus-and-coach-market-since-2008-as-zero-emission-uptake-surges/
- Aberdeen Live, "Less than third of electric buses funded by Government scheme built in Scotland" — https://www.aberdeenlive.news/news/scottish-news/less-third-electric-buses-funded-10327464
- The Herald, "Ministers snub Alexander Dennis 'lifeline' plan & hand boost to China" — https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/25994471.ministers-snub-alexander-dennis-lifeline-plan-hand-boost-china/
From speech
The 10-year bus pipeline published by the Department for Transport shows that demand for zero emission buses will double by the end of the decade. In Scotland, however, jobs are being lost in our bus manufacturing sector because overseas manufacturers are winning a greater number of orders and now constitute the majority of new registration buses on our roads, despite an investigation into the cyber-security of Chinese buses. Will the Prime Minister designate bus manufacturing as a sector critical to our national security?
Sources opened