The evidence clearly establishes that the pandemic was a major driver of the initial surge in the UK benefits bill. The OBR's March 2021 Welfare Trends Report explicitly states that welfare spending rose by £20.1 billion (1.6% of GDP) in 2020-21, with the rise "dominated by higher spending on universal credit, where the number of individuals and households receiving the benefit almost doubled." DWP statistics confirm UC claimants rose from 3 million in March 2020 to 5.7 million by October 2020 — a 90% increase directly attributed to pandemic-related job losses and income shocks. The OBR also notes that the "sharp rise in spending in our November 2020 forecast reflected the increase in caseloads and temporary increases in generosity as a result of the pandemic," including the £20/week UC uplift and Local Housing Allowance increases. However, the benefits bill has continued to grow substantially beyond the pandemic period, and the OBR and IFS identify multiple interacting drivers for the longer-term increase — particularly in health-related and incapacity benefits. The IFS (2025) notes that while the pandemic worsened population health and played a role, "this explanation... cannot be the whole picture" since comparable countries that also experienced COVID did not see similar rises in health-related benefit claims. The OBR's October 2024 report attributes rising incapacity benefit caseloads to a combination of the pandemic and its aftermath, the move to Universal Credit, the state pension age increase, cost-of-living pressures, and wider health trends. The pandemic is thus a credible and significant contributor, but not the sole or clearly decisive driver of the overall benefits bill increase by 2026. Sources: - OBR, Welfare Trends Report March 2021 — https://obr.uk/welfare-trends-report-march-2021-2/ - OBR, Welfare Spending: Universal Credit — https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-universal-credit/ - OBR, Welfare Trends Report October 2024 — https://obr.uk/wtr/welfare-trends-report-october-2024/ - IFS, Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context — https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-04/Health-related-benefit-claims-post-pandemic_3_1.pdf - GOV.UK, Universal Credit statistics: 29 April 2013 to 8 October 2020 — https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-8-october-2020/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-8-october-2020