Claim b7ca82b2Checked 21 Jul 2026
FalseOn the truth scale
“Unemployment has risen every single month since Labour came into office.”
—Mrs Kemi BadenochConservativeCon / North West Essex·Engagements·03 Jun 2026Factual · quantitative empirical
Reasoning & Evidence21 Jul 2026
Labour entered government on 5 July 2024. The latest ONS labour market release before the 3 June 2026 speech was published on 19 May 2026, covering data through January–March 2026. The ONS headline unemployment measure is a seasonally adjusted rolling three-month average (series MGSX).
**Key findings:**
1. **Multiple months were flat, not rising.** At least eight months showed no change from the preceding month (e.g., Sep 2024 = Aug 2024 at 4.3%; Oct–Jan 2024–25 all at 4.4%; May–Jun 2025 at 4.7%; Oct 2025 = Sep 2025 at 5.1%; Nov–Dec 2025 at 5.2%).
2. **Unemployment actually fell** from 5.2% (Dec 2025) to 4.9% (Jan 2026), a drop of 0.3 percentage points. The ONS explicitly stated in its April 2026 release that the unemployment rate "decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9%" in December 2025 to February 2026 compared with the previous quarter, and the May 2026 release noted the rate was "down 0.2 percentage points on the latest quarter."
3. **The overall trend was indeed upward** for much of the period — from approximately 4.0% in July 2024 to a peak of 5.2% in late 2025 — but the specific claim that unemployment rose "every single month" is contradicted by the data.
While the broad upward trajectory over Labour's first 18 months in office is accurate, the assertion that unemployment rose in *every single month* is directly contradicted by ONS data showing multiple flat months and at least one significant decline.
Sources:
- ONS, Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted), series MGSX: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx
- ONS, Labour market overview, UK: May 2026 (latest release, 19 May 2026): https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest
- ONS, Employment in the UK: April 2026 (showing 4.9% in Dec 2025–Feb 2026, down 0.2pp on quarter): https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/april2026
- ONS, Labour market overview, UK: April 2026: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/april2026
- ONS, Labour market overview, UK: May 2025 (showing 4.5% in Jan–Mar 2025): https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/May2025
From speech
The truth is that unemployment has risen every single month since they came into office. Mr Speaker, you can listen to their cheers get weaker and thinner with every passing moment. The fact is, despite his huge majority, the Prime Minister does not have the votes to reform welfare. There is a solution—a Conservative solution—[Interruption.] Labour Members are all jeering now, but I do not know why they are supporting the Prime Minister; he is more than happy to release their text messages while all of his have disappeared. Disappearing messages from a disappearing PM. There is a Conservative solution: benefits bill down, taxes down, growth up. Everyone in this House knows that the Prime Minister is just a caretaker keeping the seat warm for the Mayor of Manchester. But it does not matter who is in charge; Labour MPs will keep asking who they can tax to pay more benefits—it is in their DNA. The truth is that the problem is not this passive Prime Minister; the problem is the Labour party.
Sources opened
| [1] | ons.gov.uk |
| [2] | ons.gov.uk |
| [3] | ons.gov.uk |
| [4] | ons.gov.uk |
| [5] | ons.gov.uk |
| [6] | ons.gov.uk |
| [7] | ons.gov.uk |
| [8] | ons.gov.uk |
| [9] | ons.gov.uk |
| [10] | ons.gov.uk |
| [11] | ons.gov.uk |
| [12] | ons.gov.uk |
| [13] | ons.gov.uk |
| [14] | ons.gov.uk |
| [15] | ons.gov.uk |
| [16] | ons.gov.uk |
| [17] | ons.gov.uk |
| [18] | ons.gov.uk |
| [19] | ons.gov.uk |