“The Labour Government has brought half a million children above the poverty threshold.”

The claim that the Labour Government has "brought half a million children above the poverty threshold" (presented as "delivered") is contradicted by the government's own evidence. The 550,000 figure cited by Starmer comes from the Child Poverty Strategy published on 5 December 2025. According to the government's own impact assessment, this number refers to a *projection* for the financial year ending 2030 — the end of the parliament — not an achieved outcome. The official document states: "It is estimated that there will be 550,000 fewer children in relative low income after housing costs in the financial year ending (FYE) 2030 as a result of the Child Poverty Strategy, compared to baseline projections." This is a critical distinction. The 550,000 figure is measured against a *counterfactual baseline* — i.e., what would have happened without the strategy (poverty was projected to rise). The actual projected reduction from the current level is only 400,000. The government's own baseline report (published July 2026) shows that 4.0 million children were in relative low income after housing costs in 2024/25, unchanged from 2023/24. No reduction has occurred yet. Furthermore, as of the speech date (3 June 2026), the two-child limit was only removed on 6 April 2026 — approximately two months prior — and the free school meals expansion does not begin until September 2026. UK poverty statistics are published with a significant lag, so no actual data could possibly show the impact of these policies by June 2026. The claim is therefore false on multiple grounds: 1. It presents a future projection as an accomplished fact ("delivered"). 2. The actual projected reduction from the current baseline is 400,000, not 500,000 or 550,000. 3. The 550,000 figure is the modelled impact relative to a counterfactual (no-intervention scenario), not an absolute number of children actually lifted out of poverty. 4. No actual poverty data shows any reduction yet — the most recent data shows child poverty unchanged. Sources: - GOV.UK, "Over half a million children to be lifted out of poverty as government unveils historic child poverty strategy" (5 December 2025), https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-half-a-million-children-to-be-lifted-out-of-poverty-as-government-unveils-historic-child-poverty-strategy - GOV.UK, "Child Poverty Strategy: Impact on low income poverty levels and children gaining in the UK: December 2025", https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/child-poverty-strategy-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-and-children-gaining-in-the-uk-december-2025/child-poverty-strategy-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-and-children-gaining-in-the-uk-december-2025 - GOV.UK, "Our Children, Our Future: Tackling Child Poverty: Monitoring and Evaluation - Baseline Report", https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-children-our-future-tackling-child-poverty-monitoring-and-evaluation-baseline-report/our-children-our-future-tackling-child-poverty-monitoring-and-evaluation-baseline-report - GOV.UK, "Low income poverty projections for children, FYE 2025 to FYE 2030, November 2025", https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/low-income-poverty-projections-for-children-fye-2025-to-fye-2030-november-2025/low-income-poverty-projections-for-children-fye-2025-to-fye-2030-november-2025 - GOV.UK, "Plan to track progress on lifting 550,000 children out of poverty published" (9 July 2026), https://www.gov.uk/government/news/plan-to-track-progress-on-lifting-550000-children-out-of-poverty-published - GOV.UK, "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom