Claim d531b8d9Checked 21 Jul 2026
TrueOn the truth scale
“These people’s livelihoods are often precarious.”
Reasoning & Evidence21 Jul 2026
The claim that the livelihoods of farmers, deep-sea fishermen, and small shopkeepers are "often precarious" is amply supported by multiple sources across all three occupations.
**Farmers:** UK government statistics (Defra) document considerable year-to-year variability in Farm Business Income — e.g., cereal farm income swinging from £164,400 in 2022/23 to £44,800 in 2023/24. Around 10–16% of UK farms failed to make a positive Farm Business Income in recent years. A 2025 Guardian report citing the Food, Farming and Countryside Commission found farmers' real-terms incomes have been stagnant since the 1970s. A regional review described farm profitability as "exceptionally volatile," with many farms at "economically unsustainable profit levels."
**Deep-sea fishermen:** A peer-reviewed study in Accident Analysis & Prevention (Roberts, 2010) found commercial fishing to be "by far the most hazardous occupation in Great Britain," with a fatal accident rate 115 times that of the general workforce. The FT documented dangerous, exhausting conditions and income precarity (crew paid a share of catch, bearing weather and breakdown risks).
**Small shopkeepers:** A House of Commons Business and Trade Committee report (2025) found small businesses facing "pressures comparable to the pandemic," with ~38 stores closing daily on British high streets in early 2024. CNBC reported ~13,479 store closures in 2024, accelerating from prior years. Government insolvency statistics show historically elevated rates for small businesses.
All three occupations have well-documented evidence of income volatility, physical/economic risk, and business fragility. The claim — a modest assertion that these livelihoods are "often precarious" — is clearly supported.
Sources: GOV.UK, Forecasts of Farm Business Income by type of farm, England, 2025/26 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/farm-business-income/forecasts-of-farm-business-income-by-type-of-farm-england-202526); GOV.UK, Agriculture in the UK 2022, Chapter 3: Farming Income (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/agriculture-in-the-united-kingdom-2022/chapter-3-farming-income); The Guardian, "UK farmers' incomes stagnant since the 1970s, report finds" (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/13/uk-farmers-incomes-stagnant-since-the-1970s-report-finds); ScienceDirect, "Britain's most hazardous occupation: Commercial fishing" (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457509001651); Financial Times, "Filipino fishermen in the UK live lives of peril and loneliness" (https://ig.ft.com/filipino-fishermen/); UK Parliament Business and Trade Committee, "Small businesses facing pressures comparable to the pandemic" (https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/365/business-and-trade-committee/news/211835/small-businesses-facing-pressures-comparable-to-the-pandemic-business-and-trade-committee-finds/); CNBC, "Britain was once known as a 'nation of shopkeepers.' Now, not so much" (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/britain-was-once-known-as-a-nation-of-shopkeepers-now-not-so-much-cnbc-uk-exchange.html); GOV.UK, Business insolvency demography, 2015 to 2025 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/business-insolvency-demography-2015-to-2025)
From article
You write about how much fun you had, ‘drinking more or less continuously’, and what shedloads of money you were getting. What have you got in common with the kind of people you identify as the rank and file of Ukip: farmers, deep-sea fishermen, small shopkeepers? These are people whose living is often precarious, sometimes very dangerous, never ‘fun’, and they work very hard.
Sources opened
| [1] | gov.uk |
| [2] | yorknorthyorks-ca.gov.uk |
| [3] | theguardian.com |
| [4] | gov.uk |
| [5] | farmersguide.co.uk |
| [6] | ig.ft.com |
| [7] | bbc.com |
| [8] | sciencedirect.com |
| [9] | labourexploitation.org |
| [10] | vice.com |
| [11] | committees.parliament.uk |
| [12] | gov.uk |
| [13] | backup.ons.gov.uk |
| [14] | cnbc.com |
| [15] | gov.uk |