“The Government is reducing the number of children living in poverty by half a million.”

The claim asserts that the Government is reducing the number of children living in poverty by half a million. As of the speech date (3 June 2026), this is best understood as a forward-looking projection tied to the Government's Child Poverty Strategy (published 5 December 2025), not an observed outcome. **Cause and effect:** The asserted cause is the Government's policy package — principally the abolition of the two-child limit on Universal Credit (in effect from 6 April 2026), the expansion of free school meals to all children in households on Universal Credit (from September 2026), and related measures. The asserted effect is a reduction of roughly half a million children in poverty by the end of the Parliament (FYE 2030). **What the evidence shows:** - The Government's own impact analysis estimates the strategy will lift around 550,000 children out of relative low income after housing costs by FYE 2030 compared to baseline, with 450,000 attributed to removing the two-child limit and the remainder to free school meals expansion and other measures. - The two-child limit removal is widely recognised — including by independent experts — as a direct, well-mechanised cash transfer that materially reduces child poverty. The Resolution Foundation independently estimated the policy package would lift over half a million children out of poverty relative to a no-policy baseline, though it forecast a net reduction of only about 300,000 by end of Parliament once offsetting headwinds (notably the Local Housing Allowance freeze) are taken into account. - The IFS broadly accepted the direction and likely magnitude of the impact but flagged uncertainty about data quality and whether projected reductions would be detectable in survey-based measures. - As of the speech date, no actual measured reduction had yet occurred. The latest HBAI statistics (FYE 2025, published March 2026) showed child relative low income AHC unchanged at 27%, with no statistically significant change. The two-child limit removal had only been in effect for about two months, and the free school meals expansion had not yet begun. A subsequent government projection (July 2026, after the speech) revised the estimated reduction to 400,000 children by FYE 2030, lower than the 550,000 figure cited. **Assessment:** The causal mechanism is strong and directly modelled: abolishing the two-child limit and expanding free school meals put money back into low-income families, which reduces measured relative income poverty. The Government's modelling and independent analysis corroborate the direction and a plausible magnitude in the hundreds of thousands. However, as of the speech, the reduction had not yet been observed in the data; it remains a projection subject to economic and data uncertainty, and independent estimates of the net effect are somewhat lower than the headline "half a million." The claim is therefore a reasonable and likely outcome of the Government's policies, but it is not yet an established, delivered result. Sources: - GOV.UK, "Over half a million children to be lifted out of poverty as government unveils historic child poverty strategy" (5 December 2025): https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-half-a-million-children-to-be-lifted-out-of-poverty-as-government-unveils-historic-child-poverty-strategy - GOV.UK, "Two-child limit scrapped as historic Bill to lift 450,000 children out of poverty becomes law" (19 March 2026): https://www.gov.uk/government/news/two-child-limit-scrapped-as-historic-bill-to-lift-450000-children-out-of-poverty-becomes-law - GOV.UK / DWP, "Child Poverty Strategy: Impact on low income poverty levels and children gaining in the UK: December 2025": https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/child-poverty-strategy-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-and-children-gaining-in-the-uk-december-2025/child-poverty-strategy-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-and-children-gaining-in-the-uk-december-2025 - GOV.UK / DWP, "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom": https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom - GOV.UK / DWP, "Households Below Average Income: An analysis of the UK income distribution: FYE 1995 to FYE 2025" (March 2026): https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2025/households-below-average-income-an-analysis-of-the-uk-income-distribution-fye-1995-to-fye-2025 - GOV.UK / DWP, "Low income poverty projections for children, FYE 2026 to FYE 2031, July 2026": https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/low-income-poverty-projections-for-children-fye-2026-to-fye-2031-july-2026 - Institute for Fiscal Studies, "Response to government's Child Poverty Strategy": https://ifs.org.uk/articles/response-governments-child-poverty-strategy - Resolution Foundation, "Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty..." (5 December 2025): https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/rate-of-child-poverty-set-to-fall-over-the-parliament-with-over-half-a-million-children-lifted-out-of-poverty-thanks-to-scrapping-of-two-child-limit-and-expansion-of-free-school-meals/ - House of Lords Library, "Child poverty: Government policy": https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/child-poverty-government-policy/