“The Conservatives caused costs to rise dramatically.”

**Identifying the claim:** In the speech context, Starmer says: "They introduced a system that is broken, they put the bill through the roof." The claim "The Conservatives caused costs to rise dramatically" refers to the welfare/social security bill — that Conservative policies (2010–2024) caused welfare costs to increase substantially. **Cause:** Conservative welfare policies (including Universal Credit, structural reforms to the benefits system, etc.) **Effect:** Dramatic rise in the welfare bill/costs **Assessment of the evidence:** 1. **Overall spending rose only modestly as a share of GDP.** The Resolution Foundation reports that total social security spending rose from 10.0% of GDP (2007-08) to 11.2% (2024-25) — a 1.2 percentage point increase over 14+ years, which they explicitly describe as "modest." The IFS similarly notes spending grew "significantly faster than expected" recently but in the context of a relatively stable share of national income. 2. **Welfare spending actually *fell* during the 2010s under Conservative austerity.** According to the IFS and Resolution Foundation, welfare spending fell by about one-fifth (17%) as a share of GDP between 2009-10 and 2019-20. The OBR's own Welfare Trends Report documents that the Conservatives announced approximately 150 separate welfare cuts, froze working-age benefits for four years, introduced the two-child limit, the benefit cap, and below-inflation uprating for 7 of 14 years. The real value of basic unemployment support *fell* 7.6%. 3. **The recent rise (post-2019) was driven by factors outside Conservative policy choices.** The IFS attributes the increase mainly to: (a) rising health/disability benefit caseloads — a demographic/societal trend, not a deliberate policy decision; and (b) higher-than-expected CPI inflation pushing up uprating costs. The state pension triple lock (a Conservative policy) did increase pension spending, but this is one specific element, not a wholesale "putting the bill through the roof." 4. **Conservative policies were designed to *cut* spending, not raise it.** The OBR's 2019 Welfare Trends Report notes that the Summer Budget 2015 package was intended to save £12 billion, and while some savings fell short due to policy reversals and delays, the net direction of policy was toward cutting, not increasing, the welfare bill. Working-age households in the bottom fifth lost an average of £2,800 per year from all social security changes since 2010 (Resolution Foundation). 5. **Universal Credit implementation costs rose, but total UC spending was designed to save money.** The NAO reports UC implementation costs rose to £2.9 billion, and the OBR notes some policy reversals added ~£2 billion/year. But these are small relative to total welfare spending of £220+ billion, and UC was overall designed to reduce spending relative to the legacy system. **Conclusion:** The evidence does not support the claim that the Conservatives "caused costs to rise dramatically." Welfare spending as a share of GDP was broadly stable or falling during most of the Conservative years, and the modest recent increase was driven by rising disability caseloads and inflation — not by deliberate Conservative policy choices to increase spending. Conservative policies overwhelmingly aimed to *cut* working-age welfare. The claim conflates correlation (spending rose in cash/inflationary terms) with causation (Conservative policies caused it), and the magnitude of "dramatically" is not supported by the evidence, which describes the increase as "modest." Sources: Resolution Foundation, "Ratchets, retrenchment and reform: The social security system since 2010" (https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2024/06/Ratchets-retrenchment-and-reform.pdf); IFS, "How have the size and shape of the UK state changed" (https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/IFS-REPORT-How-have-the-size-and-shape-of-the-UK-state-changed-1.pdf); IFS, "The Conservatives and the Economy, 2010–24" (https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/WP202424-The-Conservatives-and-the-Economy-2010%E2%80%9324.pdf); OBR, Welfare Trends Report 2019 (https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Welfare-trends_report_December_2019.pdf); OBR, Welfare Trends Report 2014 (http://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Welfare_trends_report_2014_dn2B.pdf); NAO, "Progress in implementing Universal Credit" (https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/progress-in-implementing-universal-credit-summary.pdf)