In context, Mrs Badenoch's claim is a causal assertion: that regardless of who leads the Labour Party, Labour MPs will inevitably pursue the same policy of taxing more to fund more welfare spending — it is "in their DNA." The implied cause is a change in Labour leadership; the asserted effect is no change in Labour MPs' welfare-and-tax behaviour. The evidence actively contradicts this claim: 1. **Labour's welfare and tax policies have varied dramatically under different leaders.** Tony Blair's "New Labour" embraced fiscal constraint, welfare conditionality, and means-tested targeted benefits rather than broad welfare expansion (Cambridge, Social Policy and Society). Ed Miliband explicitly proposed capping social security spending (BBC, 2013). Jeremy Corbyn's leadership pursued radical welfare-state expansion, public ownership, and redistributive ambitions. Keir Starmer abandoned Corbyn-era pledges, governed with fiscal restraint described by academics as "minimal social democracy," and attempted welfare cuts — a policy approach far closer to fiscal conservatism than Corbyn's (Springer; Cambridge; Exa/DOI). 2. **Academic analysis explicitly identifies UK Labour as a party with unusually large policy swings across leaders.** A comparative study noted that "UK Labour has often shown quite strong swings between its policy preferences" and that its shifts — from Blair's market-oriented Third Way to Corbyn's radical left-wing programme to Starmer's technocratic restraint — were among the most extreme in the centre-left party family (Springer, 2025). Another analysis described "constant tensions between its left and right wings" and that "Labour has by no means spoken with one voice" on welfare (Cambridge, Social Policy and Society). 3. **Starmer's own welfare U-turn does show Labour MPs resisting cuts.** Over 100 Labour MPs rebelled against Starmer's welfare reform bill, forcing concessions that eliminated projected savings (BBC; Reuters; Guardian; AP News, 2025). This partially supports the narrower claim that Labour MPs tend to resist welfare reductions. However, the fact that a Labour leader *proposed* welfare cuts in the first place — and that previous Labour leaders like Blair and Miliband pursued fiscal restraint — directly contradicts the broader assertion that leadership is irrelevant to Labour's welfare-and-tax direction. **Conclusion:** The evidence does not support the claim that "it does not matter who is in charge." Historical record shows that different Labour leaders have produced materially different welfare and taxation policies. While there is evidence that Labour MPs as a group tend to resist benefit cuts (as seen in the 2025 welfare rebellion), this does not establish that leadership is irrelevant — in fact, the dramatic variation in Labour policy across leaders demonstrates the opposite. Sources: - BBC News, "Ed Miliband: Labour would cap social security spending" — https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-22785282 - Cambridge University Press, Social Policy and Society, "Just Words?: A Discourse Analysis of Labour's 2024 Manifesto" — https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-policy-and-society/article/just-words-a-discourse-analysis-of-labours-2024-manifesto-and-the-implications-for-british-social-policy/B92ABBDECE99EAF9A707E5E12C0A1AB4 - Springer, "A new era of 'minimal social democracy'? Comparing UK Labour under Keir Starmer" — https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-025-00295-4 - BBC News, "Keir Starmer u-turns on benefits changes after Labour backlash" — https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6my6v81z4o - Reuters, "U-turns wipe out UK welfare savings and strain budget, analysts warn" — https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/u-turns-wipe-out-uk-welfare-savings-strain-budget-analysts-warn-2025-07-02/ - AP News, "UK leader Starmer waters down planned welfare cuts after revolt in his Labour Party" — https://apnews.com/article/uk-starmer-welfare-cuts-uturn-de4ee8536d08d1e7e4336d33cb8e5a4e - The Guardian, "Keir Starmer forced into dramatic climbdown to pass welfare reform bill" — https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jul/01/welfare-bill-passes-after-keir-starmer-offers-late-concession - Hansard, UK Parliament, 2026-06-03 Engagements — https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2026-06-03/debates/051DBB77-8D86-47FD-91B3-95DD68A17CC0/Engagements