Claim 2292b61cChecked 21 Jul 2026
TrueOn the truth scale
“The asylum backlog is down by 46%.”
Reasoning & Evidence21 Jul 2026
The claim that "the asylum backlog is down by 46%" is well-supported by official and authoritative sources.
**Key evidence:**
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford reported that the UK's initial decision asylum backlog fell to 49,000 applications by the end of 2025, which was 46% lower than a year before — matching the claim exactly. This was described as the smallest backlog since 2020.
GOV.UK's own Immigration System Statistics (year ending March 2026) show an even more recent picture: at the end of March 2026, there were 48,758 people awaiting an initial decision (relating to 35,744 cases), which was 55% fewer than at the end of March 2025, and 72% lower than the June 2023 peak of 175,457.
So the 46% figure was the calendar-year 2025 comparison (end of 2025 vs. end of 2024). By the time of the speech (June 3, 2026), the most recent official statistics (March 2026) showed an even larger reduction of 55% year-over-year. The claim therefore, if anything, understates the reduction rather than overstating it.
One nuance worth noting: the 46% refers specifically to the initial decision asylum backlog (cases awaiting a first decision from the Home Office). The Migration Observatory also notes that the asylum appeals backlog nearly doubled to a record 80,000 applications in 2025, which complicates the overall picture of the "asylum backlog" in a broader sense. However, when political figures and the Home Office refer to "the asylum backlog," they typically mean the initial decision backlog, and the 46% figure is accurate on that measure.
The claim is accurate for the metric it most naturally refers to, and more recent data shows the reduction was even greater.
Sources:
- Migration Observatory, University of Oxford — "The UK's asylum backlog" — https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-uks-asylum-backlog/
- GOV.UK — "How many people are in the UK asylum system?" (Immigration system statistics, year ending March 2026) — https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-march-2026/how-many-people-are-in-the-uk-asylum-system
- GOV.UK — "Summary of latest statistics" (Immigration system statistics, year ending March 2026) — https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-march-2026/summary-of-latest-statistics
From speech
I am proud of what we are delivering on this side of the House. The fastest growing economy in the G7—they said it could not be done. Despite the war in the middle east, the OECD forecasts that UK growth is up and inflation is down. Net migration, which reached nearly a million under the Conservatives—the Leader of the Opposition was the cheerleader—is down by a staggering 82%. The asylum backlog is down by 46%. We are delivering the fastest reduction in waiting times in the history of the NHS. That is on top of free school meals, free breakfast clubs and free childcare—and, of course, we are lifting half a million children out of poverty. I am very proud of the work of this Labour Government.
Sources opened
| [1] | migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk |
| [2] | gov.uk |
| [3] | gov.uk |
| [4] | fullfact.org |
| [5] | migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk |
| [6] | gov.uk |
| [7] | gov.uk |