Claim 43f741e3Checked 21 Jul 2026
TrueOn the truth scale
“Net migration is down by 82%.”
Reasoning & Evidence21 Jul 2026
The ONS published provisional long-term international migration estimates on 21 May 2026, covering the year ending December 2025. These show:
- **Peak net migration:** 944,000 in the year ending March 2023 (under the Conservative government)
- **Latest net migration:** 171,000 in the year ending December 2025
The decline from 944,000 to 171,000 represents a drop of approximately 773,000, or roughly **82%**. This is confirmed by multiple sources: the ONS itself, Full Fact, the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, and UK Demographics, all of which state that net migration has fallen by 82% from its peak.
In the speech context, Starmer explicitly references the peak: "Net migration, which reached nearly a million under the Conservatives... is down by a staggering 82%." The baseline is clearly the peak under the previous government, and the 82% figure is mathematically correct against that baseline.
**Important qualification:** While the number is accurate, the speech frames this as Labour's achievement ("I am proud of what we are delivering"), and the Migration Observatory notes that "the sharp decline in net migration results largely from policy choices taken by the previous government" — including restrictions on students bringing dependants and care worker visas, which were Conservative policies that Labour retained and expanded upon. Additionally, Full Fact notes that if measured from when Labour took office (year ending June 2024), the decline is 74%, not 82%. However, the explicit factual claim — net migration is down 82% from its peak — is correct.
Sources:
- Office for National Statistics, "Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025" — https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/latest
- ONS Blog, "Net migration continues to fall" (21 May 2026) — https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2026/05/21/net-migration-continues-to-fall/
- Full Fact, "'Immigration' has not fallen by 82% under Labour" — https://fullfact.org/immigration/anna-turley-immigration-down-82-percent-under-labour/
- Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, "Falls in net migration, small boat arrivals and asylum claims..." — https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/falls-in-net-migration-small-boat-arrivals-and-asylum-claims-as-just-under-one-in-five-in-the-uk-are-foreign-born/
- BBC News, "UK net migration drops to 171,000 - lowest since Covid pandemic" — https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyp1ekd584o
- UK Demographics, "Net migration: ONS LTIM" — https://ukdemographics.co.uk/migration/
From speech
I am proud of what we are delivering on this side of the House. The fastest growing economy in the G7—they said it could not be done. Despite the war in the middle east, the OECD forecasts that UK growth is up and inflation is down. Net migration, which reached nearly a million under the Conservatives—the Leader of the Opposition was the cheerleader—is down by a staggering 82%. The asylum backlog is down by 46%. We are delivering the fastest reduction in waiting times in the history of the NHS. That is on top of free school meals, free breakfast clubs and free childcare—and, of course, we are lifting half a million children out of poverty. I am very proud of the work of this Labour Government.
Sources opened